OTT beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Turris scored at 0:37 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:21 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Zach Hyman, William Nylander | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:26 | OTT | Bobby Ryan from Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 12:49 | OTT | Erik Karlsson from Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:18 | TOR | Auston Matthews unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:25 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 17:52 | OTT | Derick Brassard unassisted | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 19:57 | TOR | Auston Matthews from William Nylander, Jake Gardiner | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 6:45 | OTT | Kyle Turris from Mark Stone | 4–4 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 0:37 | OTT | Kyle Turris from Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 17:37 | 4 | +3.25 | +0.14 | +3.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 14:39 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 20:00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hunwick D | 2:11 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:17 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Milan Michalek L | 12:41 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Carrick D | 18:54 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:45 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Komarov R | 17:32 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:41 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 23:57 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 11:36 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:29 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 17:36 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.47 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 12:53 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:25 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:37 | −2.78 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Turris C | 21:40 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.03 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.24 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Derick Brassard C | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Bobby Ryan R | 14:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.09 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marc Methot D | 22:00 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 7:14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:57 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 21:47 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:54 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 13:38 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 10:34 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Varone C | 10:44 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 13:53 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 15:48 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.05 | |
| Chris Neil R | 5:49 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 12:09 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 22:06 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 23:42 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:37 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.