NYR beat CBJ 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.7, CBJ 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello scored at 18:14 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 72% to 88%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:17 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Derek Stepan, Henrik Lundqvist | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:28 | NYR | Dan Boyle unassisted | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 14:41 | CBJ | Nick Foligno from David Savard, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 18:14 | NYR | Mats Zuccarello from Chris Kreider | 3–1 | 72% → 88% |
| P3 10:45 | CBJ | Nick Foligno from Seth Jones, Jared Boll | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:49 | NYR | Derek StepanEN unassisted | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Boyle D | 19:12 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 11:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.13 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 13:47 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.10 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Klein D | 23:53 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 16:53 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 11:31 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 12:57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 20:46 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 7:09 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:39 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 25:33 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 13:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Keith Yandle D | 22:23 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 17:25 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 16:12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 17:01 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Stalberg L | 13:08 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 12:53 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 60:00 | +0.95 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foligno L | 16:08 | 2 | +1.91 | +0.19 | +1.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.34 | −0.01 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 21:57 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 19:17 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 0:42 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:27 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Calvert L | 13:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 15:14 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gregory Campbell C | 7:49 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:17 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 24:28 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 6:55 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 15:20 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 17:46 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:51 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 29:00 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 19:01 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.17 | +0.04 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:03 | −0.45 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 58:25 | −0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.