CAR beat NYR 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.7, CAR 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Victor Rask scored on the power play at 9:06 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 82%. Henrik Lundqvist allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:05 | CAR | Patrick Brown from Jeff Skinner, Ron Hainsey | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:36 | NYR | Mats Zuccarello from Derek Stepan, Dan Boyle | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:03 | NYR | Rick Nash from J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 13:27 | CAR | Justin Faulk from Sergey Tolchinsky, Ryan Murphy | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:18 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Derek Stepan, Keith Yandle | 3–2 | 48% → 71% |
| P3 4:22 | CAR | Jeff Skinner from Ryan Murphy, Patrick Brown | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 9:06 | CAR | Victor RaskPP unassisted | 3–4 | 53% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:11 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.13 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:59 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.09 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 14:44 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.09 | +0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 18:36 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.38 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:27 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 20:58 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Klein D | 19:57 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Boyle D | 17:26 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 15:13 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 16:52 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 14:02 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Viktor Stalberg L | 10:59 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 9:47 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 15:40 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 18:02 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 10:05 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.05 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 19:21 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 57:49 | −2.13 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Brown C | 12:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.15 | +0.39 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Faulk D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.08 | +0.40 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Staal C | 20:13 | +0.28 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Sergey Tolchinsky L | 10:53 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:56 | +0.24 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 20:01 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nathan Gerbe C | 8:29 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:28 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 18:30 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:47 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 20:33 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Murphy D | 17:03 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Malone C | 8:15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 16:15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 9:48 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Terry L | 17:34 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 60:00 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.