NYI beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.2, CAR 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cal Clutterbuck scored at 4:46 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:35 | NYI | Kyle Okposo from Nikolay Kulemin | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:55 | NYI | Nikolay Kulemin unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 0:59 | CAR | Victor Rask from Chris Terry, Brett Pesce | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 5:34 | CAR | Jeff Skinner from Ron Hainsey, Jaccob Slavin | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:01 | CAR | Jay McClement from Ryan Murphy | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 0:30 | NYI | Cal ClutterbuckPP from Casey Cizikas, Calvin de Haan | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| OT 4:46 | NYI | Cal Clutterbuck from Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:04 | 2 | +1.84 | +0.10 | +1.72 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:35 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.11 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | |
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 14:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.18 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 18:38 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 16:22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:56 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:13 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Strait D | 15:50 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Prince L | 12:57 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 12:47 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:10 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 27:19 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 25:52 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:23 | −0.41 | −0.25 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 18:21 | −0.57 | −0.18 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:49 | −0.62 | −0.20 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 17:47 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| J-F Berube G | 64:43 | −0.21 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay McClement C | 10:56 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.44 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:13 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.14 | +0.41 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Victor Rask C | 20:27 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.33 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Riley Nash C | 15:23 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 13:37 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brody Sutter C | 8:53 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 8:39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:56 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:37 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 15:57 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murphy D | 16:49 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 20:01 | −0.11 | +0.28 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:48 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Gerbe C | 14:16 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Terry L | 16:37 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 64:46 | −0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.