TOR beat ANA 6–5 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored at 0:41 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 4.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:56 | ANA | Jamie McGinnPP from Brandon Pirri, Corey Perry | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:01 | TOR | Tyler Bozak unassisted | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 6:55 | TOR | Nazem KadriPP from Milan Michalek, Connor Brown | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 8:58 | TOR | Tyler BozakPP from Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly | 1–3 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 16:59 | TOR | Frank Corrado from Brooks Laich, Ben Smith | 1–4 | 91% → 98% |
| P2 18:54 | ANA | Jamie McGinnPP from Brandon Pirri, Ryan Getzlaf | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P2 19:03 | ANA | Andrew Cogliano from Shawn Horcoff, Josh Manson | 3–4 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 5:39 | ANA | Ryan GarbuttSH unassisted | 4–4 | 19% → 47% |
| P3 8:17 | ANA | Brandon Pirri from Shawn Horcoff, Hampus Lindholm | 5–4 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 15:37 | TOR | Connor BrownPP from Milan Michalek, Nazem Kadri | 5–5 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 0:41 | TOR | Nazem Kadri from Zach Hyman, Morgan Rielly | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie McGinn L | 17:33 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.15 | +1.46 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Garbutt C | 11:19 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.25 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.07 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Pirri C | 13:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Manson D | 23:28 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bieksa D | 4:28 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 18:00 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:18 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Shawn Horcoff C | 15:23 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:51 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Clayton Stoner D | 16:09 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 29:22 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Santorelli C | 7:57 | −0.30 | +0.18 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 23:34 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:55 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 19:39 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 8:48 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:41 | −4.15 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:33 | 2 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.05 | +1.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Tyler Bozak C | 12:42 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.02 | +1.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Brown R | 14:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frank Corrado D | 14:29 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.15 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| PA Parenteau R | 14:58 | +0.40 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.51 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:17 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:50 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Michalek L | 17:00 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rinat Valiev D | 13:45 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 20:17 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 23:08 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 15:44 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Josh Leivo L | 11:49 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:24 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:55 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Greening C | 12:57 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Laich C | 12:54 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Connor Carrick D | 17:25 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 60:21 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.