NJD beat NSH 5–4 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Henrique scored on the power play at 1:54 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Pekka Rinne allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:48 | NSH | Craig SmithPP from Shea Weber, Filip Forsberg | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:00 | NJD | Kyle PalmieriPP from Jacob Josefson, David Schlemko | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:13 | NSH | Mike RibeiroPP from Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 2:39 | NSH | Paul Gaustad from Austin Watson, Miikka Salomaki | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:23 | NJD | Devante Smith-Pelly from Jon Merrill, Sergey Kalinin | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 9:13 | NJD | Travis ZajacPP from David Schlemko, Kyle Palmieri | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 17:56 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Craig Smith, Mike Ribeiro | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:20 | NJD | Adam HenriquePP from Devante Smith-Pelly, Kyle Palmieri | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 1:54 | NJD | Adam HenriquePP from Travis Zajac, John Moore | 5–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 21:03 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.44 | +1.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 18:30 | 1 | 1 | +1.31 | +0.48 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:50 | 1 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.76 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 |
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.18 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joseph Blandisi C | 15:53 | +0.48 | +0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| David Schlemko D | 20:15 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Warsofsky D | 18:21 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Josefson C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Tyler Kennedy C | 10:33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 22:19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 20:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.31 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Sergey Kalinin C | 16:21 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 13:47 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 17:59 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reid Boucher C | 15:26 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stephen Gionta C | 10:33 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jordin Tootoo R | 11:43 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:35 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 61:17 | −1.66 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Smith C | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mike Ribeiro C | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.64 | −0.23 | +0.85 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Gaustad C | 10:01 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.45 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:58 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 15:05 | +0.11 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Petter Granberg D | 13:47 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 23:01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 21:47 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 13:11 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:03 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 10:40 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:08 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.05 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:45 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 14:09 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 25:00 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.53 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:18 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.48 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 61:54 | −2.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.