STL beat OTT 4–3 in a shootout. STL lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored on the power play at 19:59 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 3% to 52%. Andrew Hammond saved 5.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:36 |  STL | Dmitrij Jaskin from Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:53 | STL | Jaden SchwartzPP from David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 10:38 | STL | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Jaden Schwartz | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 12:32 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Dion Phaneuf, Mika Zibanejad | 3–1 | 4% → 15% |
| P3 17:19 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson | 3–2 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 19:59 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Bobby Ryan, Zack Smith | 3–3 | 3% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Berglund C | 14:38 | +0.54 | −0.07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.02 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 20:37 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 12:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:00 | 1 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.48 |
| Joel Edmundson D | 13:13 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:28 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.14 | +0.29 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:04 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 8:29 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 16:30 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 7:51 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 24:41 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:17 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.23 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 24:38 | 2 | −0.56 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 15:33 | −0.57 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 23:25 | −0.63 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.48 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 17:07 | −0.68 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| David Backes R | 21:00 | 1 | −0.91 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.48 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 13:51 | −0.93 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 65:00 | +5.02 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dzingel C | 7:48 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.74 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 20:11 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.14 | +1.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.48 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 14:31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 16:33 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 8:25 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 18:45 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Nick Paul L | 10:50 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:04 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 20:51 | −0.36 | +0.17 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 25:50 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.38 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 9:55 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 18:51 | −0.50 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 32:29 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Zack Smith C | 21:24 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.48 | |
| Matt Puempel L | 7:35 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 14:08 | −0.70 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 22:23 | 1 | −1.30 | +0.07 | −1.00 | +0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hammond G | 29:15 | +5.07 |
| Craig Anderson G | 33:41 | −0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.