PHI beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shayne Gostisbehere scored at 0:29 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:29 | TOR | Shawn Matthias from Nick Spaling | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:56 | PHI | Sam Gagner from Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 9:35 | PHI | Jakub Voracek from Scott Laughton, Michael Raffl | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:57 | PHI | Brayden Schenn from Radko Gudas, Wayne Simmonds | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 11:57 | TOR | Nick Spaling from Nazem Kadri, Roman Polak | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 3:16 | TOR | Peter Holland from Nazem Kadri | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 4:32 | TOR | Byron Froese from Rich Clune, Brad Boyes | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 5:04 | PHI | Matt Read from Michael Raffl, Scott Laughton | 4–4 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 0:29 | PHI | Shayne Gostisbehere from Jakub Voracek | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.02 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Sam Gagner C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.04 | +0.82 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.14 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Read R | 13:53 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.13 | +0.55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 16:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.11 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schultz D | 18:19 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 13:42 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Medvedev D | 14:24 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Streit D | 20:00 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:47 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 22:13 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 14:14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:15 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| R.J. Umberger C | 13:11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris VandeVelde C | 14:49 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 15:52 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan White C | 13:59 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michal Neuvirth G | 16:59 | −0.58 |
| Steve Mason G | 43:30 | −2.07 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Froese C | 11:54 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shawn Matthias L | 12:08 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.18 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Spaling C | 14:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.19 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Peter Holland C | 16:14 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.36 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rich Clune L | 10:37 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Viktor Loov D | 12:52 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 23:30 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Boyes R | 11:34 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| PA Parenteau R | 16:17 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 21:05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 17:20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frank Corrado D | 14:14 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 19:55 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:00 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.07 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 18:33 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Arcobello R | 15:32 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colin Greening C | 16:51 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:11 | −0.42 | −0.20 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 39:32 | −0.49 |
| Jonathan Bernier G | 20:57 | −2.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.