NYR beat BUF 6–3. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: J.T. Miller scored at 6:44 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Chad Johnson allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:58 | NYR | Dylan McIlrath from Keith Yandle, Derick Brassard | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:13 | BUF | Brian Gionta from Marcus Foligno, Zach Bogosian | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 14:51 | NYR | Viktor Stalberg from Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:06 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Jesper Fast, Kevin Klein | 1–3 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 4:31 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Jack Eichel, Matt Moulson | 2–3 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 5:44 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Jack Eichel | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 6:44 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Jesper Fast, Derick Brassard | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 9:23 | NYR | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Derek Stepan, Derick Brassard | 3–5 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 19:24 | NYR | Derick BrassardEN unassisted | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:34 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.03 | +1.61 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brian Gionta R | 15:34 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.09 | +0.46 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 17:12 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 13:54 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 17:06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal O'Reilly C | 9:50 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 16:31 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weber D | 18:52 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:43 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:57 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 12:23 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:42 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Schaller L | 8:39 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 25:16 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 28:12 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Legwand C | 10:07 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 21:57 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 14:08 | −0.50 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 58:32 | −1.48 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Stalberg L | 12:26 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.00 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.51 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan McIlrath D | 14:12 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.14 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 15:17 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.09 | +0.52 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 19:17 | 2 | 3 | +0.54 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 22:08 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 20:46 | +0.23 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:34 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 23:38 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dan Girardi D | 18:20 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 20:01 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Moore C | 12:44 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:47 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 9:35 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Paille L | 10:27 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.21 | −0.70 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 60:00 | −0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.