PIT beat VAN 5–4. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 13:00 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Ryan Miller allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 | VAN | Jannik Hansen from Alexander Edler | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 16:35 | VAN | Jannik HansenSH from Derek Dorsett, Chris Tanev | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 3:54 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Kris Letang | 2–1 | 22% → 34% |
| P3 6:00 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Ben Hutton, Luca Sbisa | 3–1 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 7:16 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin unassisted | 3–2 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 10:22 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Phil Kessel, Trevor Daley | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 13:00 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Tom Kuhnhackl | 3–4 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 18:37 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyEN from Carl Hagelin, Kris Letang | 3–5 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:43 | VAN | Jannik Hansen from Michael Zalewski, Ben Hutton | 4–5 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Hansen R | 16:25 | 3 | +2.12 | +0.16 | +1.96 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 16:50 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jared McCann L | 13:49 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 20:12 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luca Sbisa D | 17:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Dorsett R | 13:57 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 22:47 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 13:21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 16:43 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 25:59 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 9:36 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 15:34 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Zalewski L | 10:23 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Bartkowski D | 16:03 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Emerson Etem R | 14:44 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 15:30 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 15:19 | −0.42 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Linden Vey R | 17:07 | −0.47 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 59:09 | −1.74 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:44 | 3 | +2.43 | −0.03 | +2.30 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 13:21 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.04 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 17:08 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Porter C | 5:54 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 8:04 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 15:34 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 14:32 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 11:58 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:26 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 23:45 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 14:44 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:43 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Fehr C | 17:04 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Beau Bennett R | 8:08 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 19:20 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:31 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 21:18 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 21:08 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.06 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:38 | −1.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.