CAR beat TOR 1–0 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Staal scored at 2:54 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. James Reimer saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 2:54 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Justin Faulk, Ron Hainsey | 1–0 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 17:26 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.48 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 15:54 | +0.28 | +0.38 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 12:09 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John-Michael Liles D | 18:22 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:51 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 12:04 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Kris Versteeg R | 14:31 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 15:21 | −0.12 | +0.35 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 12:05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 11:57 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 25:28 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 11:50 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 20:32 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:35 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 16:08 | −0.51 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:46 | −0.72 | +0.15 | −0.84 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 62:54 | +3.02 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Boyes R | 9:22 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joffrey Lupul L | 11:09 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Rich Clune L | 7:33 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 25:05 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 20:27 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 12:43 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Shawn Matthias L | 15:04 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 16:17 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 13:19 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 12:32 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:53 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 20:45 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 13:42 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:57 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 19:55 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 19:46 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| PA Parenteau R | 17:55 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 19:18 | −0.66 | +0.11 | −0.61 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 62:54 | +3.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.