VAN beat CAR 3–2 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored on the power play at 3:25 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Cam Ward allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:14 | VAN | Linden Vey unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:27 | CAR | Kris VersteegPP from Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 9:32 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Taylor Fedun, Matt Bartkowski | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 17:50 | CAR | John-Michael Liles from Andrej Nestrasil, Victor Rask | 2–2 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 3:25 | VAN | Bo HorvatPP from Radim Vrbata, Chris Tanev | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 18:10 | 2 | +1.79 | +0.06 | +1.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Linden Vey R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 16:44 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 18:48 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 23:36 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 20:52 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 14:29 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Cracknell R | 15:00 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 14:04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 12:57 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:55 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 16:45 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 18:17 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 14:27 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emerson Etem R | 14:48 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Bartkowski D | 18:57 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Prust L | 15:01 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 13:58 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 63:15 | +0.61 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John-Michael Liles D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.16 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Versteeg R | 18:08 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Gerbe C | 9:35 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 14:27 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 20:17 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:21 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brad Malone C | 7:29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 11:43 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 16:05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 20:56 | −0.08 | +0.21 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 12:16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michal Jordan D | 15:14 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 18:45 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:33 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:59 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 63:25 | −1.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.