ARI beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on the power play at 4:51 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Louis Domingue allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:43 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 6:13 | EDM | Justin SchultzPP from Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 12:37 | ARI | Max Domi from Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–1 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 1:02 | EDM | Benoit PouliotPP from Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle | 3–1 | 74% → 90% |
| P3 3:53 | ARI | Max DomiPP from Anthony Duclair, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 6:54 | ARI | Max DomiPP from Mikkel Boedker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 4:51 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Michael Stone | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.04 | +0.78 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Justin Schultz D | 23:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.17 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Benoit Pouliot L | 20:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.06 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:40 | +0.34 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 20:44 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 15:47 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Klinkhammer L | 8:35 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 5:25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 21:28 | 3 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lander C | 8:52 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Fayne D | 14:17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 16:45 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 19:12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:37 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Purcell L | 17:31 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Lauri Korpikoski L | 18:25 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 18:19 | −0.37 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Eric Gryba D | 15:43 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 64:51 | −1.19 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 17:29 | 3 | +2.54 | +0.29 | +2.15 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 32:24 | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Martin Hanzal C | 19:14 | +0.35 | +0.20 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.06 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 19:54 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.25 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 23:23 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:41 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Zbynek Michalek D | 14:50 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 19:46 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Grossmann D | 16:55 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Tikhonov R | 9:16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Chipchura C | 9:49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boyd Gordon C | 10:49 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:27 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 16:43 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 18:37 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 13:55 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 18:52 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Vermette C | 16:35 | −0.81 | +0.10 | −0.78 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 64:49 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.