CBJ beat WSH 5–4 in a shootout. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Saad scored on the power play at 18:52 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Braden Holtby allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | CBJ | Jack JohnsonPP from Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 7:12 | WSH | T.J. OshiePP from Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 7:56 | CBJ | Brandon Saad from Alexander Wennberg, Scott Hartnell | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:47 | WSH | Jason ChimeraPP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 16:07 | WSH | Marcus Johansson from Tom Wilson | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 4:47 | CBJ | Jack JohnsonPP from Ryan Johansen, David Savard | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 5:27 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Tom Wilson, Karl Alzner | 4–3 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 18:52 | CBJ | Brandon SaadPP from Jack Johnson, Cam Atkinson | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 21:06 | 1 | +1.57 | +0.38 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.67 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.15 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Tom Wilson R | 13:19 | 2 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 32:04 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.42 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Chimera L | 15:35 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Sill C | 7:26 | +0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:09 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Laich C | 10:40 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Latta C | 10:31 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 25:42 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ness D | 8:49 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Chorney D | 10:32 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 25:37 | −0.11 | +0.48 | −0.67 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:49 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 17:12 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:01 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 23:33 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.31 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 64:35 | −2.55 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Saad L | 18:24 | 2 | +1.75 | −0.12 | +1.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 26:50 | 2 | 1 | +1.46 | +0.01 | +1.48 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Johansen C | 18:41 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.07 | +1.02 | |
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 19:10 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.61 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 22:04 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 16:41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 13:15 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 19:00 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 22:38 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Clarkson R | 3:46 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 15:09 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Rene Bourque R | 11:06 | −0.25 | +0.16 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 14:36 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 13:24 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Tyutin D | 22:43 | −0.31 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gregory Campbell C | 17:35 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 14:27 | −0.56 | +0.07 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:51 | 1 | −0.70 | +0.11 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 4:05 | +0.97 |
| Curtis McElhinney G | 60:22 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.