ARI beat WPG 4–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on the power play at 12:35 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 53% to 85%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:31 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Alexander Burmistrov, Dustin Byfuglien | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:28 | ARI | Shane Doan from Max Domi, Nicklas Grossmann | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P3 1:18 | ARI | Viktor TikhonovPP from Michael Stone, Connor Murphy | 1–2 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 7:45 | WPG | Adam Lowry unassisted | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 12:35 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette | 2–3 | 53% → 85% |
| P3 19:44 | ARI | Shane DoanEN from Jordan Martinook, Brad Richardson | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lowry C | 13:03 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.22 | +1.50 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:30 | +0.23 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 11:40 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 19:00 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Halischuk R | 7:17 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 7:52 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 13:26 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 10:01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 12:10 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 8:43 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 27:03 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 18:25 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 18:04 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.09 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 17:50 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 20:58 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 17:28 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 24:10 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 20:02 | −0.67 | −0.30 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 57:59 | −1.33 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:03 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.15 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Doan R | 19:57 | 2 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Viktor Tikhonov R | 13:16 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.07 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Richardson R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.05 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:36 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Chipchura C | 8:26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:44 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Grossmann D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Scott L | 5:11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 21:59 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 21:16 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Zbynek Michalek D | 14:58 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 13:13 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Vermette C | 23:00 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:45 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Cunningham L | 7:52 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 59:49 | +0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.