CAR beat ARI 5–4 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Rask scored at 0:53 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anders Lindback allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:37 | CAR | Kris Versteeg from Justin Faulk, Elias Lindholm | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:56 | CAR | Andrej NestrasilPP from Jordan Staal, Brett Pesce | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 15:24 | CAR | Phillip Di Giuseppe from Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin | 3–0 | 87% → 96% |
| P2 18:22 | ARI | Anthony Duclair from Max Domi | 3–1 | 3% → 12% |
| P3 0:40 | CAR | Justin FaulkPP from Elias Lindholm, Victor Rask | 4–1 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 1:43 | ARI | Anthony Duclair from Viktor Tikhonov, Max Domi | 4–2 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 3:23 | ARI | Kyle Chipchura from Nicklas Grossmann | 4–3 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 19:44 | ARI | Connor MurphyPP from Anthony Duclair | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:53 | CAR | Victor Rask from Eddie Lack, Elias Lindholm | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 14:00 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.18 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 27:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.11 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Victor Rask C | 17:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.14 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 13:15 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Versteeg R | 15:44 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 16:06 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John-Michael Liles D | 22:12 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 10:01 | +0.16 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 23:51 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 11:21 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay McClement C | 10:50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:59 | 3 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Eric Staal C | 19:34 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 15:21 | −0.32 | +0.07 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Terry L | 8:38 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 60:53 | −1.77 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.40 | −0.12 | +1.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Murphy D | 19:43 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.11 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Chipchura C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:16 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 16:14 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boyd Gordon C | 10:23 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Stefan Elliott D | 15:24 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 15:42 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 14:23 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Grossmann D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 16:51 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Doan R | 18:07 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Tikhonov R | 18:08 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Vermette C | 16:45 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 26:26 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:13 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Steve Downie R | 7:34 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 16:19 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Lindback G | 59:37 | −2.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.