CGY beat BUF 4–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 15:10 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Chad Johnson allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:46 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Dennis Wideman, Brandon Bollig | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 19:52 | CGY | Markus Granlund from Dougie Hamilton, Joe Colborne | 0–2 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 2:27 | BUF | Rasmus RistolainenPP from Sam Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 4:44 | BUF | Rasmus RistolainenPP from Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 9:25 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 14:15 | BUF | Rasmus Ristolainen from Matt Moulson, Zach Bogosian | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 15:10 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie | 3–4 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:35 | 3 | +2.36 | −0.24 | +2.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 18:08 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 16:15 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| David Legwand C | 8:10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weber D | 12:59 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:10 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 16:29 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:31 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 20:29 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 10:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 13:31 | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 16:40 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 7:42 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:11 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:00 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Gorges D | 21:01 | −0.52 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 21:40 | −0.58 | −0.11 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 58:40 | −1.36 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 18:05 | 2 | 1 | +1.55 | +0.13 | +1.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 16:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.15 | +0.85 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Markus Granlund C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 26:33 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Micheal Ferland L | 7:50 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 10:28 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ladislav Smid D | 12:05 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:57 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Colborne C | 20:48 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.03 | |
| David Jones R | 14:00 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 27:03 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Stajan C | 10:14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brandon Bollig L | 8:40 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Wideman D | 22:54 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 12:22 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Raymond L | 14:32 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 18:52 | −0.51 | +0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 60:00 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.