WPG beat WSH 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 3.2, WPG 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mark Scheifele scored at 4:40 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:53 | WPG | Andrew LaddPP from Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 14:25 | WSH | Nicklas BackstromPP from John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| OT 4:40 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 21:05 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.33 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 13:38 | +0.21 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 18:11 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 11:51 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 27:38 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Laich C | 10:37 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:42 | +0.05 | +0.43 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:01 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:18 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 14:12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Latta C | 5:01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 22:28 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:29 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stanislav Galiev R | 6:34 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Chorney D | 9:43 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 16:42 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 19:52 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:02 | −0.59 | +0.19 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 64:40 | +1.35 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ladd L | 24:45 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.25 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:22 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 8:09 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 6:22 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 14:34 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 13:53 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 27:10 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 20:35 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:20 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 18:59 | −0.16 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 20:15 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:19 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 10:39 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.34 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 22:25 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 12:49 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 17:09 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Peluso R | 6:31 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 25:32 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 64:40 | +2.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.