CGY beat BOS 5–4 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 3:20 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jonas Gustavsson allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:33 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from David Jones | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:55 | CGY | Mark Giordano from TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 17:19 | BOS | Matt Beleskey from Zdeno Chara, Loui Eriksson | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 1:36 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Brett Connolly, Zach Trotman | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 1:56 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:22 | BOS | Zdeno Chara from Matt Beleskey, Loui Eriksson | 3–3 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 18:54 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 94% |
| P3 19:58 | CGY | Jiri HudlerPP from Sean Monahan, Joe Colborne | 4–4 | 3% → 52% |
| OT 3:20 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 18:37 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.29 | +1.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Beleskey L | 18:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Zdeno Chara D | 24:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.17 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Torey Krug D | 22:58 | +0.18 | +0.28 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Trotman D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 19:50 | +0.10 | +0.45 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Tyler Randell R | 2:00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Spooner C | 7:43 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam McQuaid D | 20:13 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:51 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Ferraro C | 5:58 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 21:07 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Kemppainen C | 16:04 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jimmy Hayes R | 14:11 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 13:44 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:04 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 19:57 | −0.45 | −0.41 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 21:49 | −0.66 | −0.32 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 41:24 | +0.43 |
| Jonas Gustavsson G | 21:56 | −2.06 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 23:37 | 3 | 1 | +2.27 | +0.08 | +2.08 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Giordano D | 29:23 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.10 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Hudler R | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.03 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ladislav Smid D | 11:23 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Raymond L | 11:37 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 17:44 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 10:40 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 14:44 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jones R | 2:07 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Wideman D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 14:54 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 15:41 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 12:28 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 11:20 | −0.17 | +0.23 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 30:58 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 11:46 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 23:42 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.04 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karri Ramo G | 62:24 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.