CGY beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.5, WSH 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sean Monahan scored at 1:40 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:35 | CGY | Michael Frolik from Sam Bennett | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 1:32 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 5:41 | WSH | Michael Latta from Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner | 2–1 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 15:12 | WSH | Jay Beagle from Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen | 2–2 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 1:40 | CGY | Sean Monahan from TJ Brodie, Dougie Hamilton | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 18:58 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.67 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 15:42 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Wideman D | 20:02 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 14:00 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Hudler R | 14:27 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kris Russell D | 26:39 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 18:23 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 8:19 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 7:59 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:08 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 29:23 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Jones R | 16:53 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 16:06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Bollig L | 7:58 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:14 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 8:45 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 25:03 | −0.43 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karri Ramo G | 61:40 | +0.71 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Latta C | 12:43 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 13:10 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.34 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Karl Alzner D | 23:46 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:47 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.22 | −0.15 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brooks Laich C | 12:11 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 11:45 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 25:06 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:38 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:47 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:20 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Taylor Chorney D | 13:44 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 14:50 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:16 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.04 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:34 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:39 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 13:32 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 14:58 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:14 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 61:40 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.