BUF beat VAN 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rasmus Ristolainen scored at 19:43 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Ryan Miller allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:18 |  BUF | Jamie McGinn from Mark Pysyk, Jack Eichel | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:10 | BUF | Rasmus RistolainenPP from Jack Eichel, Brian Gionta | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 13:33 | VAN | Henrik Sedin from Daniel Sedin, Ben Hutton | 1–2 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 10:15 | VAN | Chris Higgins unassisted | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 19:43 | BUF | Rasmus Ristolainen from Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrik Sedin C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.13 | +0.72 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Higgins L | 10:27 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 22:21 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 19:58 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Bartkowski D | 19:51 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yannick Weber D | 17:17 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 10:39 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 15:11 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Dorsett R | 11:47 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 25:22 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:59 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 17:42 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 16:09 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Baertschi L | 11:50 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 15:49 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 11:21 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 17:07 | −0.47 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 59:43 | −1.12 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:17 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.06 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie McGinn L | 11:53 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 18:15 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Josh Gorges D | 20:33 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weber D | 13:33 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 23:47 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 12:29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:14 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 19:56 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:19 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 11:55 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 14:19 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 14:48 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 17:24 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:20 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| David Legwand C | 10:50 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.34 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.