SJS beat COL 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 1.9, COL 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brent Burns scored at 18:21 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Martin Jones allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:17 | COL | Jarome IginlaPP from Tyson Barrie, Carl Soderberg | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 7:00 | SJS | Joel Ward from Patrick Marleau | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 12:03 | SJS | Brent BurnsSH from Barclay Goodrow, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–1 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 12:24 | COL | Francois BeaucheminPP from Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 18:21 | SJS | Brent Burns from Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl | 3–2 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 18:40 | SJS | Joe PavelskiEN unassisted | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 18:55 | COL | Cody McLeod from Tyson Barrie, Nick Holden | 4–3 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 25:26 | 2 | +1.46 | −0.19 | +1.62 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Ward R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 22:32 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 17:26 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 10:03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 15:59 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 14:00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 7:29 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Brown R | 6:31 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 10:59 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Lerg C | 8:31 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:53 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.06 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 20:58 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:51 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.07 | |
| Paul Martin D | 23:11 | −0.43 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 60:00 | −1.00 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody McLeod L | 10:43 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Francois Beauchemin D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jarome Iginla R | 20:09 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.27 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 17:08 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.34 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Stuart D | 14:36 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 7:02 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 7:10 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:19 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Guenin D | 14:02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 23:39 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 22:25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:30 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Everberg R | 7:56 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 14:17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:25 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.09 | ||
| Alex Tanguay L | 17:30 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 20:10 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.10 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:53 | −0.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.