STL beat CGY 4–3. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Troy Brouwer scored at 2:49 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 28% to 47%. Brian Elliott allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:14 | CGY | Mason Raymond from Dennis Wideman, Michael Frolik | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:46 | STL | Scottie Upshall from Paul Stastny, Troy Brouwer | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 17:31 | CGY | Jiri HudlerPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 2:49 | STL | Troy Brouwer from David Backes | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | STL | Colton ParaykoPP from Jori Lehtera, Alex Pietrangelo | 3–2 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 19:28 | STL | Colton Parayko from Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 1:42 | CGY | David Jones from Michael Frolik | 4–3 | 10% → 26% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 18:13 | 2 | +2.19 | +0.43 | +1.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Brouwer R | 18:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.22 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Scottie Upshall R | 10:55 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.20 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 13:39 | +0.22 | +0.35 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 26:05 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:43 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:36 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jori Lehtera C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 9:59 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:52 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 20:22 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 15:05 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:26 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Ott C | 10:43 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 16:57 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 12:58 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 12:23 | −0.19 | +0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:43 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.27 | −0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 60:00 | −1.73 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Jones R | 15:40 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Hudler R | 21:14 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.24 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Raymond L | 14:08 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.18 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lance Bouma L | 7:36 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 23:04 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 15:38 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.05 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 12:43 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 14:20 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 12:17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 8:28 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Bollig L | 8:35 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 13:32 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 23:09 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Wideman D | 26:07 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:09 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 16:39 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Russell D | 23:40 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 22:29 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 58:05 | −1.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.