LAK beat SJS 4–1. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden McNabb scored at 6:03 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 53% to 80%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:38 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 10:47 |  LAK | Tyler Toffoli from Jarret Stoll, Andy Andreoff | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 6:03 | LAK | Brayden McNabb from Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter | 1–2 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 9:27 | LAK | Marian Gaborik from Jake Muzzin, Justin Williams | 1–3 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 19:16 | LAK | Andy AndreoffEN from Tyler Toffoli | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 25:25 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.18 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 11:17 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mike Brown R | 11:26 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 12:22 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 17:20 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:43 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 20:19 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Stollery D | 22:27 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Lerg C | 13:40 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:10 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| John Scott L | 13:33 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 14:36 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 15:48 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 12:59 | −0.37 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:28 | −0.37 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 18:06 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 13:09 | −0.55 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 59:48 | +0.49 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:33 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.23 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marian Gaborik R | 13:52 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.24 | +0.26 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Nolan C | 13:37 | +0.21 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 16:31 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Greene D | 17:13 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:07 | +0.13 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dwight King L | 14:58 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:42 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:46 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Andreoff C | 11:28 | 1 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Justin Williams R | 17:48 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.21 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 15:09 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 13:07 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robyn Regehr D | 21:54 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarret Stoll C | 12:38 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 17:38 | −0.30 | +0.16 | −0.49 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.