CHI beat BUF 4–3. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonathan Toews scored at 19:04 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Anders Lindback allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:16 | CHI | Duncan Keith from Brandon Saad, Andrew Shaw | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:36 | CHI | Patrick Sharp from David Rundblad, Brad Richards | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 13:10 | BUF | Marcus Foligno from Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–1 | 14% → 31% |
| P3 5:29 | BUF | Johan LarssonPP from Rasmus Ristolainen, Tyler Ennis | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 12:42 | BUF | Marcus Foligno from Brian Gionta, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 18:17 | CHI | Jonathan ToewsPP from Andrew Shaw | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 19:04 | CHI | Jonathan Toews from Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa | 4–3 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Toews C | 19:00 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.14 | +1.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:50 | 2 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 24:51 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 19:42 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Rundblad D | 15:35 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 11:25 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marian Hossa R | 19:25 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Sharp L | 15:09 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.31 | +0.36 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Vermette C | 15:19 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Bickell L | 10:14 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 21:48 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Versteeg R | 14:55 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 19:42 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 16:24 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Kimmo Timonen D | 12:33 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 12:31 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 10:43 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richards C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 59:51 | +1.05 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:50 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.42 | +0.49 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:23 | 3 | +0.63 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Gionta R | 24:43 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 13:56 | +0.14 | +0.32 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrej Meszaros D | 17:13 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 22:22 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.27 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyson Strachan D | 23:31 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kaleta R | 9:27 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 28:44 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:46 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Ellis L | 10:37 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Benoit D | 12:01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Hodgson C | 9:57 | −0.06 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 9:03 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Zac Dalpe C | 7:40 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 13:27 | −0.20 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Varone C | 11:55 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 24:13 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Lindback G | 59:12 | −1.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.