EDM beat PHI 5–4 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at 2:46 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ray Emery allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:51 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Jordan Eberle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:25 | PHI | Claude Giroux from Jakub Voracek | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 12:00 | PHI | Claude GirouxPP from Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:17 | PHI | Ryan White from Zac Rinaldo | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 16:15 | EDM | Teddy Purcell from Derek Roy | 3–2 | 21% → 35% |
| P1 19:29 | EDM | Matt Hendricks from Boyd Gordon, Andrew Ference | 3–3 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:11 | EDM | Jordan Eberle from Benoit Pouliot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–4 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 0:46 | PHI | Michael Raffl from Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| OT 2:46 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Nikita Nikitin, Taylor Hall | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 21:13 | 2 | +1.95 | +0.27 | +1.58 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Michael Raffl L | 16:33 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.09 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan White C | 10:43 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carlo Colaiacovo D | 16:54 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 17:58 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 8:25 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Schultz D | 18:34 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 8:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 19:38 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.23 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Chris VandeVelde C | 13:42 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mark Streit D | 23:04 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:45 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 22:45 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 23:56 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:26 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 13:59 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Read R | 17:40 | −0.51 | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Grossmann D | 16:03 | −0.58 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Emery G | 62:46 | −1.92 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.58 | +0.07 | +1.55 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Matt Hendricks C | 14:18 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 16:53 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.03 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Nikitin D | 20:21 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 24:36 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Klinkhammer L | 11:17 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 17:31 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boyd Gordon C | 13:03 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Ference D | 17:24 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Fayne D | 16:22 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 22:11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 15:11 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Miller C | 10:44 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:14 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Roy C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nail Yakupov R | 16:36 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lander C | 16:01 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Scrivens G | 62:46 | −1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.