NYR beat CBJ 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 3.4, NYR 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: David Savard scored at 15:41 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 11% to 49%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:57 | NYR | Kevin Hayes from Carl Hagelin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:06 | NYR | Martin St. Louis from Derek Stepan, Marc Staal | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 1:24 | NYR | Martin St. Louis from Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 2:17 | CBJ | Marko Dano from Nick Foligno, Fedor Tyutin | 1–3 | 6% → 14% |
| P2 18:11 | CBJ | Artem Anisimov from Marko Dano | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 15:41 | CBJ | David Savard from Artem Anisimov, Nick Foligno | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Dano C | 14:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.17 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Savard D | 24:25 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.19 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.49 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Letestu C | 13:15 | +0.46 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.70 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 19:19 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.41 | −0.50 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 27:42 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 19:33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 5:21 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Tropp R | 5:35 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Leopold D | 13:03 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 17:26 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 15:46 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 20:40 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 16:57 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 17:02 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Tyutin D | 24:31 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:34 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.36 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:33 | −0.74 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 64:54 | −0.47 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin St. Louis R | 20:10 | 2 | +2.40 | −0.10 | +1.59 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.70 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 10:56 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.06 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 20:11 | +0.73 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 21:56 | +0.13 | +0.25 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 20:05 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 19:09 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:50 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Moore C | 12:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 20:38 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 8:11 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 21:22 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Glass L | 9:52 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 14:03 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:48 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Boyle D | 21:54 | −0.47 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 12:51 | −0.53 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.36 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:07 | −0.59 | −0.03 | −0.59 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 21:48 | 2 | −0.76 | −0.11 | −0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | +0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.