CGY beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.1, CGY 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: TJ Brodie scored at 4:58 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Karri Ramo allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:48 | BOS | Brad MarchandSH from Patrice Bergeron | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 11:27 | BOS | Zdeno Chara from Dougie Hamilton, David Pastrnak | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 0:50 | BOS | Torey Krug from Reilly Smith, Kevan Miller | 3–0 | 80% → 93% |
| P2 6:52 | CGY | David Jones from Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano | 3–1 | 6% → 17% |
| P3 3:22 | CGY | Jiri Hudler from Sean Monahan, Paul Byron | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 14:51 | CGY | Jiri HudlerPP from Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau | 3–3 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 4:58 | CGY | TJ Brodie from Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 19:56 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 26:43 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.13 | +0.39 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:07 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:02 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Bartkowski D | 13:02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 12:31 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Cunningham L | 7:01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gregory Campbell C | 8:38 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Daniel Paille L | 8:04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 15:33 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 22:53 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 15:45 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 18:45 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 19:21 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 20:41 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 24:34 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 64:58 | −1.43 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Hudler R | 15:46 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.77 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 27:52 | 3 | +0.66 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 26:07 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.37 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 16:20 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Jones R | 16:19 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Raphael Diaz D | 10:03 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 15:04 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:50 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Byron L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 8:53 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Wideman D | 29:45 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 11:34 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Glencross L | 13:59 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 9:22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Jooris R | 17:07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 18:38 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 27:16 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Raymond L | 16:26 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 44:08 | +1.19 |
| Karri Ramo G | 20:49 | −1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.