NJD beat TOR 2–1 in a shootout. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Larsson scored at 17:10 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 9% to 51%. Cory Schneider saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 11:49 | TOR | James van Riemsdyk from Tyler Bozak, David Clarkson | 1–0 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 17:10 | NJD | Adam Larsson from Martin Havlat, Patrik Elias | 1–1 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:20 | +0.44 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 19:28 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 24:18 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:41 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Booth L | 7:14 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Petter Granberg D | 9:45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 6:29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 26:49 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 17:03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 12:54 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Smith C | 9:23 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:32 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 24:15 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 18:15 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| David Clarkson R | 16:03 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 20:19 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.20 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.36 | |
| Mike Santorelli C | 17:57 | −0.94 | +0.03 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 64:43 | +0.56 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Josefson C | 11:07 | +0.78 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.82 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:59 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Elias C | 21:01 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.32 | |
| Martin Havlat R | 17:11 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Fraser D | 19:08 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 6:16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Bernier R | 14:39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marek Zidlicky D | 22:40 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Gelinas D | 15:22 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 26:16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:53 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 20:52 | −0.19 | +0.27 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 16:01 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordin Tootoo R | 7:07 | −0.29 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 19:57 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Gomez C | 15:28 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.30 | ||
| Dainius Zubrus C | 16:06 | −0.41 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 18:05 | −0.50 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 64:52 | +3.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.