SJS beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marc-Edouard Vlasic scored at 3:09 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:21 | MIN | Jason Zucker from Jason Pominville | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:22 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Jason Zucker, Jason Pominville | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 10:54 | SJS | Melker Karlsson from Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 6:21 | SJS | Joe Pavelski from Logan Couture | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 7:35 | SJS | Tommy Wingels from James Sheppard, Brent Burns | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 12:12 | MIN | Jason Zucker from Charlie Coyle | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 3:09 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Justin Braun | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 24:01 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.13 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Wingels C | 24:40 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 16:24 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.04 | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Logan Couture C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 25:55 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 6:41 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:56 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:25 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 18:59 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| John Scott L | 4:07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:29 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 17:52 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Freddie Hamilton C | 8:27 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:34 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:26 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Sheppard C | 16:12 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Tennyson D | 18:27 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 62:29 | −0.89 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 18:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.18 | +1.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:55 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Pominville R | 19:55 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 21:08 | +0.05 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:44 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 18:51 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carter L | 9:57 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Christian Folin D | 13:25 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 28:08 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 16:13 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:37 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Sutter L | 6:17 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cooke L | 15:42 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:44 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Fontaine R | 12:07 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 12:28 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 18:26 | −0.95 | +0.13 | −0.76 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 43:09 | −2.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.