CBJ beat COL 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.8, COL 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: David Savard scored at 18:59 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:30 | COL | Jarome Iginla unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:35 | CBJ | Brandon Dubinsky from Cody Goloubef, Jack Johnson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:37 | CBJ | Brandon Dubinsky from Matt Calvert, Cody Goloubef | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:25 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:50 | CBJ | Ryan Johansen from Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 15:30 | COL | Cody McLeod from Daniel Brière, Brad Stuart | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 18:59 | CBJ | David Savard from Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 20:25 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.03 | +1.59 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 23:38 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.05 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:30 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.14 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 15:51 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 5:47 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 18:54 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Chaput C | 6:04 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 20:24 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Tyutin D | 19:44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Morin L | 15:57 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| James Wisniewski D | 22:34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 22:34 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 13:31 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 18:28 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Collins C | 12:09 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 16:06 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Tropp R | 6:17 | −0.33 | +0.08 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 60:00 | +0.09 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody McLeod L | 7:05 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.03 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jarome Iginla R | 18:05 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.03 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 9:03 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 13:06 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 17:55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 18:02 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Guenin D | 12:39 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Hejda D | 22:22 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Borna Rendulic R | 12:54 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Brière C | 10:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 15:50 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:21 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex Tanguay L | 20:15 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Stuart D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| John Mitchell C | 15:01 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 26:34 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:52 | −1.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.