MTL beat FLA 2–1 in a shootout. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad scored at 18:11 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Dustin Tokarski saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 18:54 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Lars Eller, Nathan Beaulieu | 1–0 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 18:11 | FLA | Nick Bjugstad from Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–1 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 33:56 | 1 | +2.61 | +2.46 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Alexei Emelin D | 35:06 | +2.17 | +2.40 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 36:26 | +2.15 | +2.42 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| PA Parenteau R | 13:50 | +0.61 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +1.05 | ||
| Michael Bournival L | 8:13 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 19:17 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Sekac L | 16:35 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sergei Gonchar D | 22:30 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 18:15 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 7:16 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Prust L | 17:10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Markov D | 20:56 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dale Weise R | 10:02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 25:04 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Gilbert D | 22:11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Plekanec C | 18:07 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 16:37 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.36 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 17:29 | −0.62 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 60:00 | +2.67 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bergenheim L | 14:23 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.36 | |
| Tomas Fleischmann L | 11:33 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 11:23 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 11:05 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Boyes R | 15:19 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dave Bolland C | 18:34 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Willie Mitchell D | 24:14 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Olsen D | 16:51 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 23:47 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:40 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 19:47 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:53 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:03 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 37:27 | 1 | −1.28 | −1.38 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Hayes R | 31:22 | −1.42 | −1.26 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 32:11 | −1.45 | −1.34 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Campbell D | 38:13 | −1.46 | −1.41 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:00 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.