CGY beat LAK 4–3 in overtime. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mark Giordano scored at 4:07 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jonathan Quick allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:26 | LAK | Trevor Lewis from Drew Doughty, Brayden McNabb | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:50 | LAK | Marian GaborikPP from Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 4:32 | LAK | Jamie McBainPP from Dustin Brown, Justin Williams | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 18:02 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauPP from Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell | 1–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 17:48 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauPP from Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano | 2–3 | 0% → 7% |
| P3 19:01 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauPP from Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 4:07 | CGY | Mark Giordano from TJ Brodie, Jiri Hudler | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:58 | 3 | +2.10 | +0.16 | +1.89 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 27:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Bollig L | 10:41 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Hudler R | 19:57 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Raphael Diaz D | 8:06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:05 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 28:05 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Wideman D | 27:49 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Raymond L | 14:30 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 11:37 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 25:05 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Glencross L | 14:25 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 12:48 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 15:08 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 14:13 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 15:48 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jones R | 15:22 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 12:04 | −0.47 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 62:56 | +0.49 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie McBain D | 13:00 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:50 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marian Gaborik R | 20:24 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.16 | +0.31 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 32:08 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Greene D | 17:59 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 12:42 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 22:26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Richards C | 12:57 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 28:55 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 16:34 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jarret Stoll C | 17:44 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 11:54 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:47 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 16:47 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:52 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 11:37 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dwight King L | 12:26 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 19:34 | −0.52 | +0.14 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 64:07 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.