COL beat DET 2–1 in a shootout. COL lost the expected-goals battle 1.2 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Johnson scored on the power play at 15:45 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 11% to 49%. Calvin Pickard saved 4.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 4:52 | DET | Pavel DatsyukPP from Riley Sheahan, Henrik Zetterberg | 0–1 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 15:45 | COL | Erik JohnsonPP from Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog | 1–1 | 11% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarome Iginla R | 18:40 | +0.64 | −0.22 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.05 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 14:57 | +0.59 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.70 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 27:17 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.47 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:44 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.40 | ||
| Zach Redmond D | 20:20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Everberg R | 8:07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Stuart D | 21:45 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 10:04 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody McLeod L | 8:30 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 16:07 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tanguay L | 18:31 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.14 | ||
| Nate Guenin D | 17:52 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Hejda D | 23:23 | −0.52 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Brière C | 16:48 | −0.57 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 17:35 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:55 | −0.63 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.45 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| John Mitchell C | 18:20 | −1.07 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 65:00 | +4.90 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Tatar L | 19:33 | +0.97 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:00 | +0.45 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 | ||
| Pavel Datsyuk C | 22:27 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.50 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.30 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 20:30 | +0.32 | +0.40 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Quincey D | 22:12 | +0.27 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 16:18 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 22:05 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Miller L | 10:39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Cleary R | 8:17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Kindl D | 18:16 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 16:54 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 19:05 | −0.34 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.38 | −0.41 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.45 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 22:50 | −0.43 | +0.48 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Johan Franzen R | 16:11 | −0.51 | +0.46 | −0.70 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.45 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 20:45 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.15 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.45 | |
| Tomas Jurco R | 15:18 | −0.85 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 65:00 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.