SJS beat STL 3–2 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marc-Edouard Vlasic scored on the power play at 19:39 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 4% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:47 | SJS | Andrew Desjardins from Justin Braun, Tye McGinn | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 14:29 | STL | Patrik Berglund from Alex Pietrangelo, Dmitrij Jaskin | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 17:21 | STL | Steve Ott from Maxim Lapierre, Ian Cole | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 19:39 | SJS | Marc-Edouard VlasicPP from Joe Thornton, Melker Karlsson | 2–2 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 4:22 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Ott C | 13:46 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.14 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Patrik Berglund C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 14:10 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 14:54 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 15:39 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joakim Lindstrom C | 12:35 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barret Jackman D | 20:24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Butler D | 18:51 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:12 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:42 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 19:39 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 26:03 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jori Lehtera C | 18:31 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 24:12 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Lapierre C | 9:26 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 19:39 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 64:22 | −0.25 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Desjardins L | 6:42 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.11 | +0.89 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 26:07 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.20 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.08 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 21:08 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Logan Couture C | 22:29 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Scott Hannan D | 12:52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 22:51 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Justin Braun D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Tennyson D | 15:00 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:50 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 18:50 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| James Sheppard C | 16:25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tye McGinn L | 7:15 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:49 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Scott L | 5:27 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 15:18 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 23:44 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:15 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 63:10 | −0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.