NSH beat MIN 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.8, MIN 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm scored at 1:45 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pekka Rinne allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:10 | MIN | Jason Zucker from Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:37 | NSH | Calle Jarnkrok from Shea Weber, Roman Josi | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 6:37 | MIN | Zach Parise from Charlie Coyle, Thomas Vanek | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:58 | NSH | Matt Cullen from Victor Bartley, Mike Fisher | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 18:14 | NSH | Craig Smith from Mike Ribeiro | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:18 | MIN | Marco ScandellaPP from Charlie Coyle, Zach Parise | 3–3 | 33% → 54% |
| P3 1:48 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Victor Bartley, Craig Smith | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 9:05 | NSH | Roman JosiPP from Shea Weber, Matt Cullen | 5–3 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 10:46 | MIN | Zach ParisePP from Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter | 5–4 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 19:12 | MIN | Thomas VanekPP from Marco Scandella, Ryan Suter | 5–5 | 5% → 52% |
| OT 1:45 | NSH | Mattias Ekholm unassisted | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 27:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 7:43 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:58 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.18 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 18:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.11 | +0.27 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:36 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Weber D | 26:43 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 21:46 | +0.19 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Ribeiro C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.11 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Colin Wilson C | 18:17 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Bartley D | 12:11 | 2 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Beck L | 8:09 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Nystrom L | 15:35 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Roy C | 7:37 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 12:48 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Jokinen C | 14:22 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 14:41 | −0.29 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 18:25 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 61:39 | −2.44 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Parise L | 20:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.17 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Vanek L | 17:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.53 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marco Scandella D | 23:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:43 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Pominville R | 19:14 | 2 | +0.25 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:44 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.21 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Cooke L | 12:27 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:46 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 21:05 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 31:27 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Folin D | 6:48 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 7:47 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 8:18 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Justin Fontaine R | 7:11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:23 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Carter L | 8:51 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 26:31 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Niklas Backstrom G | 41:02 | −1.02 |
| Darcy Kuemper G | 20:00 | −2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.