CBJ beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kris Letang scored on the power play at 19:49 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 3% to 49%. Thomas Greiss allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:02 | CBJ | Nick FolignoPP from Boone Jenner, David Savard | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 15:06 | PIT | Blake Comeau from Paul Martin, Rob Klinkhammer | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 7:22 | PIT | Kris LetangSH from Craig Adams, Marcel Goc | 2–1 | 47% → 77% |
| P3 12:05 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP unassisted | 2–2 | 18% → 51% |
| P3 17:49 | CBJ | Jack Johnson from Brandon Dubinsky, David Savard | 2–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:49 | PIT | Kris LetangPP from Christian Ehrhoff, Evgeni Malkin | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang D | 25:44 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.06 | +1.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.22 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 21:14 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Farnham R | 5:31 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Downie R | 8:13 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Klinkhammer L | 16:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ebbett C | 10:40 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcel Goc C | 14:43 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Spaling C | 20:04 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Scuderi D | 23:36 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 6:02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Adams R | 12:54 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Ehrhoff D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Despres D | 17:39 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 24:35 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.02 | −0.45 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 24:37 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.30 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 20:19 | −0.65 | −0.05 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 63:37 | −1.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Johnson D | 29:17 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.39 | +0.53 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 22:41 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.09 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.02 | −0.14 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 |
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:21 | +0.57 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.70 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 23:20 | +0.44 | +0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.40 | ||
| James Wisniewski D | 23:12 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 17:17 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Chaput C | 8:30 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 13:29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Tropp R | 6:57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 14:39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kerby Rychel L | 10:10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Leopold D | 16:17 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 13:35 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 7:26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 19:31 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 26:27 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.11 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:45 | −0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.