BUF beat FLA 4–3 in overtime. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Zadorov scored at 0:29 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jhonas Enroth allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:06 | BUF | Cody Hodgson from Patrick Kaleta, Nikita Zadorov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:05 | BUF | Marcus Foligno from Nicolas Deslauriers, Drew Stafford | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 1:08 | FLA | Sean Bergenheim from Brad Boyes | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:51 | FLA | Jimmy Hayes from Sean Bergenheim, Dmitry Kulikov | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 0:57 | FLA | Jussi Jokinen from Dave Bolland | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 8:27 | BUF | Brian Gionta from Tyler Myers, Andre Benoit | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| OT 0:29 | BUF | Nikita Zadorov from Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bergenheim L | 16:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.19 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jimmy Hayes R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.19 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 15:35 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Willie Mitchell D | 19:51 | +0.23 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:35 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dave Bolland C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 15:42 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Olsen D | 18:04 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Kopecky R | 12:18 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Boyes R | 14:29 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.13 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Fleischmann L | 15:44 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 15:55 | −0.22 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 12:13 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:58 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Brandon Pirri C | 11:02 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Campbell D | 22:25 | −0.48 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:57 | −0.65 | −0.43 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 40:29 | −0.87 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zadorov D | 23:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Brian Gionta R | 14:56 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:28 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.07 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cody Hodgson C | 12:43 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 29:35 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:50 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 13:27 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 20:33 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Patrick Kaleta R | 10:31 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Benoit D | 19:43 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torrey Mitchell C | 13:36 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Andrej Meszaros D | 9:46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 14:40 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Flynn C | 14:27 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 19:04 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Stewart R | 12:11 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 17:09 | −0.72 | +0.12 | −0.84 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jhonas Enroth G | 60:29 | −1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.