CBJ beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Foligno scored on the power play at 4:41 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:19 | WSH | Eric FehrPP from John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 0–1 | 57% → 69% |
| P1 15:36 | CBJ | Nick Foligno from Brian Gibbons, James Wisniewski | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 9:20 | WSH | Troy Brouwer from Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 10:59 | CBJ | Kevin Connauton from James Wisniewski, Cam Atkinson | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 4:41 | CBJ | Nick FolignoPP from Jack Johnson, Ryan Johansen | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foligno L | 19:21 | 2 | +1.48 | −0.19 | +1.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 16:49 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.02 | +0.88 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 24:47 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 12:56 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 19:00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 16:51 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 26:51 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Chaput C | 8:35 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 15:33 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Leopold D | 19:20 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 7:24 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Tropp R | 7:57 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:49 | −0.50 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 19:31 | −0.52 | −0.11 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 16:45 | −0.57 | −0.04 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:06 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| James Wisniewski D | 19:51 | 2 | −0.80 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:40 | +2.70 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brouwer R | 19:59 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.45 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Eric Fehr C | 16:21 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.23 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 11:42 | +0.41 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.53 | −0.02 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 18:34 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 25:07 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 22:42 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Michael Latta C | 7:55 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 26:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.32 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 22:58 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 11:28 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:11 | −0.05 | +0.34 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 10:02 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 11:54 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jason Chimera L | 10:07 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brooks Laich C | 17:20 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Green D | 17:58 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 17:54 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 24:43 | −1.04 | +0.15 | −1.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 64:37 | −0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.