MIN beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marco Scandella scored at 1:01 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:07 | MIN | Nino NiederreiterPP from Thomas Vanek, Justin Fontaine | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 4:11 | MIN | Zach Parise from Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 18:45 | MIN | Zach Parise from Jared Spurgeon, Jason Pominville | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P3 5:55 | WPG | Michael Frolik from Matt Halischuk | 1–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 8:19 | WPG | Evander Kane from Dustin Byfuglien | 2–3 | 5% → 18% |
| P3 10:47 | WPG | Andrew Ladd from Adam Pardy, Paul Postma | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 1:01 | MIN | Marco Scandella from Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Frolik R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.04 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 23:21 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.50 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 18:58 | +0.36 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.53 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 21:01 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Thorburn R | 3:18 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pardy D | 10:50 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Postma D | 10:20 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jim Slater C | 6:57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 25:24 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 12:26 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 28:51 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 10:23 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Halischuk R | 8:11 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stuart D | 16:22 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 21:57 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:30 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 21:33 | −0.78 | +0.00 | −0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 40:59 | +0.09 |
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 19:53 | −2.11 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Parise L | 20:00 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.12 | +1.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:48 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.12 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 24:58 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.10 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 14:26 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Carter L | 8:15 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 17:31 | 3 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 8:35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 13:28 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Ballard D | 8:48 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Fontaine R | 8:01 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:26 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 22:19 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.33 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Nate Prosser D | 19:42 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 9:44 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 28:58 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 10:57 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 13:58 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 28:24 | −0.57 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.70 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 10:14 | +0.27 |
| Niklas Backstrom G | 50:34 | −0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.