NYI beat BUF 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.3, BUF 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brock Nelson scored at 16:16 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 10% to 49%. Connor Knapp allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:27 | BUF | Jamie McBain from Connor Knapp | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 7:23 | BUF | Matt Ellis from Marcus Foligno, Jake McCabe | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 16:37 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey | 1–2 | 10% → 24% |
| P3 0:17 | NYI | Anders Lee from Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 9:51 | BUF | Torrey Mitchell from Rasmus Ristolainen, Henrik Tallinder | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 16:16 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Travis Hamonic | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 19:15 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.80 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:33 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.04 | +1.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 20:40 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 22:31 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Donovan D | 24:14 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Gallant L | 6:46 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Czuczman D | 17:32 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 14:07 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Persson L | 16:28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 27:35 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carkner D | 17:37 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 26:28 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Halmo L | 8:09 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 16:31 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Johnson R | 5:43 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin McDonald R | 15:50 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 15:27 | −0.39 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 21:34 | 2 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 65:00 | +0.86 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Mitchell C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.21 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jamie McBain D | 25:41 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Ellis L | 8:39 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 17:14 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 13:27 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Tallinder D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:51 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Zenon Konopka C | 8:58 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Weber D | 21:02 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Scott L | 8:43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 12:42 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Hodgson C | 18:21 | −0.30 | +0.29 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.37 | ||
| Ville Leino L | 18:03 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 20:14 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.51 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 22:41 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 19:36 | −0.65 | +0.10 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Knapp G | 64:56 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.