COL beat NYR 3–2 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyson Barrie scored on the power play at 19:08 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 5% to 50%. Semyon Varlamov saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:10 | NYR | John Moore from Mats Zuccarello, Benoit Pouliot | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 5:57 | COL | Andre Benoit from John Mitchell, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 15:30 | NYR | Derek Stepan from Kevin Klein, Dan Girardi | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 19:08 | COL | Tyson BarriePP from Paul Stastny, Erik Johnson | 2–2 | 5% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Stepan C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.08 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| John Moore D | 15:12 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.04 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Carcillo L | 9:05 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Raphael Diaz D | 14:48 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:54 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 11:21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 17:30 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:04 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 27:21 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 28:04 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Dorsett R | 10:00 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 16:36 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 19:58 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 11:42 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 16:58 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.19 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Richards C | 19:19 | −0.74 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.47 | ||
| Martin St. Louis R | 19:26 | −0.92 | −0.42 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 65:00 | +0.88 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:12 | 1 | +1.56 | +0.33 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | |
| Andre Benoit D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Guenin D | 14:30 | +0.38 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 22:43 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.47 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:51 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 22:10 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Bordeleau L | 11:22 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 9:01 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 2:37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Hejda D | 22:55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 3:11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 19:43 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Jamie McGinn L | 17:12 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 17:50 | −0.17 | +0.17 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:06 | −0.29 | +0.51 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.15 | ||
| Cody McLeod L | 8:06 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:36 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 26:15 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 63:42 | +1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.