COL beat CBJ 3–2 in overtime. COL lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog scored on the power play at 4:27 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:52 | CBJ | Cam Atkinson from Brandon Dubinsky | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:59 | CBJ | Blake Comeau from Nick Foligno, Fedor Tyutin | 0–2 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 9:46 | COL | Brad Malone from Marc-Andre Cliche, Nick Holden | 1–2 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 15:03 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Paul Stastny | 2–2 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 4:27 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:29 | 2 | +1.71 | −0.01 | +1.54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Malone C | 5:51 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cory Sarich D | 16:39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Carey C | 5:46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Bordeleau L | 8:11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Guenin D | 17:26 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 18:57 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody McLeod L | 16:06 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:03 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 24:00 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 13:43 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jan Hejda D | 26:37 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Talbot C | 17:46 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:15 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 16:59 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 19:36 | −0.59 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:27 | +0.20 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:15 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 12:39 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.19 | +0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 18:39 | +0.27 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Fedor Tyutin D | 24:50 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 16:38 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 22:50 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 7:38 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Savard D | 16:22 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Wisniewski D | 24:27 | +0.06 | +0.28 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Tropp R | 10:48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 26:24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nikitin D | 14:10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 20:53 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 17:00 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 21:56 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 6:46 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 17:55 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:27 | −0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.