NYR beat PHX 4–3 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan McDonagh scored at 1:56 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Mike Smith saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHX–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:40 | PHX | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Keith Yandle, Mike Smith | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:22 | PHX | Jeff Halpern from Kyle Chipchura, Michael Stone | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 6:10 | NYR | Brad Richards from Carl Hagelin, Benoit Pouliot | 2–1 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 10:53 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:51 | PHX | Kyle Chipchura from Zbynek Michalek | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 16:32 | NYR | Dan Girardi from Ryan McDonagh, Benoit Pouliot | 3–3 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 1:56 | NYR | Ryan McDonagh from Dan Girardi, Carl Hagelin | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHX
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Halpern C | 11:32 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 27:25 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.25 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Chipchura C | 11:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Rob Klinkhammer L | 10:03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 16:48 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Erat R | 15:33 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| David Moss R | 10:58 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 15:04 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Vermette C | 16:27 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Brandon McMillan L | 12:54 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Summers D | 14:53 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zbynek Michalek D | 25:33 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Hanzal C | 20:31 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 18:18 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Morris D | 15:33 | −0.56 | −0.53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Ribeiro C | 17:06 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 18:13 | −0.72 | −0.26 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 23:52 | 1 | −0.99 | −0.69 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 52:01 | +1.39 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 9:30 | −0.92 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Girardi D | 28:17 | 1 | 1 | +1.41 | +0.65 | +0.74 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 29:16 | 1 | 2 | +1.11 | +0.62 | +0.59 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Brad Richards C | 21:34 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.54 | +0.42 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.11 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 13:51 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 16:37 | +0.23 | +0.31 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 10:12 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Derek Dorsett R | 12:38 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 11:45 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 22:27 | +0.09 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 18:45 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.55 | −0.53 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Raphael Diaz D | 13:14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 16:44 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin St. Louis R | 11:04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 12:37 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 7:04 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 16:25 | −0.61 | +0.25 | −0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 61:56 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.