WPG beat COL 5–4 in overtime. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Blake Wheeler scored at 1:42 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Al Montoya allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:20 | COL | Ryan O'Reilly from Matt Duchene, Jamie McGinn | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:15 | WPG | Andrew Ladd from Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:08 | WPG | Eric Tangradi from Blake Wheeler, Olli Jokinen | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:47 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Andre Benoit, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 12:02 | WPG | Evander Kane from Devin Setoguchi, Paul Postma | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 19:29 | COL | Nick Holden from Tyson Barrie, Max Talbot | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 4:58 | WPG | Andrew LaddPP from Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom | 3–4 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 10:23 | COL | Cody McLeod from Max Talbot, Nate Guenin | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 1:42 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Paul Postma, Toby Enstrom | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:04 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Holden D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.43 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody McLeod L | 14:45 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.09 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:49 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:37 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:03 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Guenin D | 15:31 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Talbot C | 18:07 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brad Malone C | 6:19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 5:53 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Sarich D | 12:42 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Jamie McGinn L | 16:53 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Bordeleau L | 4:59 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Hejda D | 24:18 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 26:43 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Andre Cliche C | 15:47 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Benoit D | 20:57 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Reto Berra G | 61:40 | −1.60 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.10 | +0.29 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Ladd L | 19:25 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.13 | +0.60 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Postma D | 15:34 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Tangradi L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 20:06 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.18 | +0.27 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Setoguchi R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Stuart D | 21:17 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 23:47 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Halischuk R | 5:57 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Keaton Ellerby D | 19:02 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric O'Dell C | 15:39 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:17 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Peluso R | 4:47 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 19:17 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Olli Jokinen C | 18:37 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrice Cormier C | 6:10 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pardy D | 17:43 | −0.06 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 61:40 | −1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.