PIT beat ANA 3–2 in a shootout. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgeni Malkin scored on the power play at 8:57 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 19% to 48%. Jonas Hiller allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:54 | ANA | Corey Perry from Ryan Getzlaf, Saku Koivu | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:47 | PIT | Deryk Engelland from Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P3 1:10 | ANA | Corey Perry from Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 8:57 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from James Neal, Sidney Crosby | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:16 | +1.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +1.03 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 15:10 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.11 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 22:09 | +0.55 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +1.03 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:11 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.80 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.07 | +0.45 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.15 |
| Simon Despres D | 16:13 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 23:03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Adams R | 10:59 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcel Goc C | 10:53 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 8:18 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Vitale C | 10:31 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Rob Scuderi D | 24:54 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 17:27 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 27:19 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Pyatt L | 11:20 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 20:01 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 20:08 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 16:03 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | +0.47 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 23:18 | 2 | +2.86 | +0.40 | +1.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +1.03 | |
| Teemu Selanne R | 12:19 | +1.02 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +1.03 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:52 | +0.20 | +0.55 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Allen D | 15:14 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Beleskey L | 8:00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 2:56 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 8:45 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Saku Koivu C | 16:21 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Lovejoy D | 26:13 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Francois Beauchemin D | 32:29 | −0.16 | +0.47 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 24:06 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.35 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.47 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 16:56 | −0.20 | +0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.31 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 18:20 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:19 | −0.30 | +0.18 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:10 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.37 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:49 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 29:35 | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:46 | −0.45 | +0.28 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Hiller G | 64:49 | −2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.