CGY beat EDM 2–1 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sean Monahan scored at 1:50 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Reto Berra saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:15 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Joe Colborne, Mark Giordano | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P3 9:43 | EDM | David Perron from Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner | 1–1 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 1:50 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Paul Byron, Ladislav Smid | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 16:00 | 2 | +1.60 | +0.04 | +1.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.04 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 23:59 | +0.36 | +0.41 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:48 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.06 | ||
| Dennis Wideman D | 13:48 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 8:45 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 8:54 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Markus Granlund C | 15:00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Westgarth R | 1:33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Hudler R | 21:10 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Jones R | 16:23 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 11:43 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Galiardi L | 18:15 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ladislav Smid D | 16:32 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 24:48 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.34 | −0.35 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Butler D | 20:11 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 18:33 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 19:09 | −0.33 | +0.16 | −0.51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 24:52 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Reto Berra G | 61:47 | +1.15 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.19 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hendricks C | 16:09 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Schultz D | 17:16 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fraser D | 15:22 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Gazdic L | 5:56 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 24:11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boyd Gordon C | 13:54 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 17:51 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 19:08 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Joensuu L | 11:36 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Jones L | 7:42 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ales Hemsky R | 17:41 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 21:00 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:04 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Smyth L | 13:01 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:40 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ference D | 18:41 | −0.42 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:14 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Bryzgalov G | 61:49 | +0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.