NYI beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lubomir Visnovsky scored at 1:55 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Evgeni Nabokov allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:53 | TOR | Phil Kessel from Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:53 | NYI | Michael GrabnerSH from Casey Cizikas | 1–1 | 35% → 52% |
| P1 16:41 | NYI | Michael GrabnerSH unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 70% |
| P3 8:50 | TOR | Paul Ranger from James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 11:26 | TOR | Dion Phaneuf from Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 12:52 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 13:54 | TOR | Joffrey Lupul from Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson | 4–3 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 17:20 | NYI | Anders Lee from Ryan Strome, Travis Hamonic | 4–4 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 1:55 | NYI | Lubomir Visnovsky unassisted | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Ranger D | 12:28 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.08 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.39 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joffrey Lupul L | 20:05 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.41 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 24:47 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.22 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 23:13 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 22:19 | 2 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Trevor Smith C | 6:03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 14:25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 19:12 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 13:21 | −0.18 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Troy Bodie R | 7:24 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 10:59 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:25 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.31 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.02 | |
| David Clarkson R | 16:20 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Gleason D | 13:43 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Raymond L | 14:57 | −0.48 | −0.19 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 18:57 | −0.69 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 61:54 | −0.34 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 12:21 | 2 | +1.33 | +0.19 | +1.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 18:14 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.07 | +1.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lubomir Visnovsky D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.26 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 15:12 | +0.27 | +0.23 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.33 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 22:55 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Strait D | 18:10 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 23:11 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 16:47 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin McDonald R | 12:06 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 20:10 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.09 | ||
| Mike Halmo L | 9:01 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 19:26 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.23 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 17:21 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.02 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 23:27 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Boulton L | 6:12 | −0.28 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:37 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.14 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 19:01 | −0.49 | +0.13 | −0.65 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Nabokov G | 61:55 | −1.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.