NJD beat EDM 2–1 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jon Merrill scored at 2:34 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cory Schneider saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:01 | NJD | Andrei Loktionov from Bryce Salvador, Jaromir Jagr | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:30 | EDM | Taylor Hall from Nail Yakupov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| OT 2:34 | NJD | Jon Merrill from Michael Ryder, Adam Henrique | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 18:18 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.05 | +0.55 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boyd Gordon C | 13:41 | +0.15 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 20:22 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Schultz D | 21:07 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:18 | +0.07 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nail Yakupov R | 17:28 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hendricks C | 16:26 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Joensuu L | 6:15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ales Hemsky R | 15:23 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 21:32 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fraser D | 11:17 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Gazdic L | 6:32 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:52 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Smyth L | 11:34 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 20:22 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ference D | 21:04 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 25:50 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:58 | −0.51 | −0.09 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Bryzgalov G | 62:34 | +0.98 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Loktionov C | 8:00 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 20:49 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peter Harrold D | 21:38 | +0.17 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryce Salvador D | 19:35 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Fayne D | 19:31 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Damien Brunner R | 12:36 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carter L | 8:24 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Marek Zidlicky D | 19:33 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Gionta C | 12:32 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryane Clowe L | 21:11 | −0.07 | +0.25 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Elias C | 14:45 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Steve Bernier R | 7:19 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 22:07 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 20:54 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.34 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Dainius Zubrus C | 16:34 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.03 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 18:50 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Ryder R | 20:00 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.14 | −0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 19:58 | −0.53 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 62:34 | +1.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.