CGY beat NYI 4–2. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Jones scored at 14:28 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Reto Berra saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:15 | CGY | Sean Monahan from Joe Colborne, Kris Russell | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 18:08 | CGY | Dennis WidemanPP from Mikael Backlund, TJ Brodie | 2–0 | 72% → 88% |
| P2 19:53 | NYI | Thomas Hickey from Josh Bailey, Colin McDonald | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 7:31 | NYI | Calvin de Haan from John Tavares, Thomas Vanek | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 14:28 | CGY | David Jones from Matt Stajan, Dennis Wideman | 3–2 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 19:57 | CGY | Mikael BacklundEN from Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Wideman D | 17:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.15 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Monahan C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.06 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| David Jones R | 15:43 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.13 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 25:47 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 18:27 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 18:17 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:32 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| Chris Butler D | 21:00 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 20:53 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Hudler R | 17:12 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Russell D | 16:50 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian McGrattan R | 6:46 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 19:22 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.06 | |
| Paul Byron L | 7:49 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 13:45 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Galiardi L | 7:14 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ladislav Smid D | 17:54 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 12:50 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Reto Berra G | 59:58 | +1.08 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin de Haan D | 21:24 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 14:15 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.05 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 25:13 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.06 | |
| Colin McDonald R | 11:07 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Boulton L | 6:59 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 17:19 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Brian Strait D | 19:14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 17:28 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Donovan D | 17:39 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 19:59 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 12:06 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 12:23 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:19 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 24:45 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:44 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 24:01 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lubomir Visnovsky D | 20:40 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:35 | −0.61 | −0.08 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Nabokov G | 58:43 | −1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.